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British Columbia Provincial Election 2005
The 2005 UBC Election Stock Market is a financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of the next British Columbia Election to the Provincial Parliament in Victoria on Wednesday, May 17, 2005, and the electoral reform referendum which will be held on the same day. For details regarding the contracts being traded consult the information in the trader's manual. The Election Stock Market for the May 2005 provincial election and electoral reform referendum is now closed.
 
Market Liquidation: Following the election and referendum on May 17, the market administrators will await the return of the writ, scheduled for June 8, before liquidating the market and sending out cheques. This is to ensure that results from any recounts are reflected in the liquidation values for the individual contracts. Judicial recounts will be conducted in two constituencies were the result was very close. June 7, 2005: The market liquidation is in progress. Please refer to our liquidation values page for details. Cheques will be in the mail by the end of this week.
 
Election Stock Market Statistics
Number of Investors Investment Total Investment Average
104$23,085$222
 
Seats Distribution: Predicted vs. Actual
Party Final Price (*) Predicted Seats Actual Seats Error
B.C. Liberals 61.5 ¢  48.6  46  +2.6 
B.C. NDP 37.2 ¢  29.4  33  -3.6 
All Other Parties 2.0 ¢  1.6  +1.6 
 
Popular Vote: Predicted vs. Actual (+)
Party Final Price (*) Predicted Share Actual Share Error
B.C. Liberals 44.5 ¢  44.5 %  45.8 %  -1.3 % 
B.C. NDP 35.9 ¢  35.9 %  41.5 %  -5.6 % 
B.C. Green Party 13.9 ¢  13.9 %  9.2 %  +4.7 % 
All Other Parties 5.3 ¢  5.3 %  3.5 %  +1.8 % 
(*) volume-weighted average trading price of May 14-16, 2005;
final prices may not add up to 100¢
(+) actual results are preliminary

 
Introduction [PDF] - this two page document summarizes what the election stock market is about. A much more detailed description can be found in our Trader's Manual; click on the corresponding menu button on the left.
 
Market Activity - see our markets in action: tables and charts of the seats market, popular vote market, and majority government market. We also provide a spreadsheet file with volume-weighted average prices to journalists and researchers.
 
Voter Migration Matrix Election Forecasting Tool - predict the seats distribution by conjecturing the likely migration of voters between parties. - Following the election on May 17, the B.C. Election 2009 forecasting tool is now available.
 
Opinion Polls - see what the polls predict.
 
Previous Election Results
  •2001 Election Results
  •1996 Election Results
 
Message Board - follow the discussions about the UBC-ESM 2005 on the rabble.ca internet message board.
 
UBC-ESM News Coverage in the Media
  • Election stock market proves very accurate, Gordon McIntyre, The Province, April 28, 2005
  • UBC online exchange lets free market investors bet on May 17 vote, David Secko, May 2, 2005.
  • UBC Election Stock Market now open for business, Will Keats-Osborn, The Ubyssey, March 1, 2005
 
UBC-ESM News Releases
  • February 1, 2005
  • April 18, 2005
  • May 12, 2005
 
Information about Political Parties
  • B.C. Liberal Party
  • B.C. New Democratic Party
  • B.C. Green Party
 
Election News Coverage
  • CBC: B.C. Votes 2005
  • Vancouver Sun, Province, National Post, Global TV: B.C. Election 2005
  • The Globe and Mail: The B.C. Election
 
Other Useful Links
  • Elections B.C.
  • Milton Chan's Elections Prediction Project attempts to predict outcomes in individual
    ridings by analyzing information from individual ridings through a panel of experts.
  • Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform
  • Information on the proposed proportional representation single transferable vote
     to be considered in the referendum on electoral reform.
  • BC-STV web site of Citizens' Assembly alumni.
  • STV for BC is another "yes" campaign web site.
  • FairVotingBC also campaigns for the "yes" side in the referendum.
  • The No-to-STV Campaign
  • Know More Before You Vote is a no compaign supported by Bill Tieleman and Bud Smith.
  • Wikipedia entry: British Columbia general election, 2005.
 
Legal Disclaimers

© 2014 Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia.