|The 2005 UBC Election Stock Market is a
financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being
traded are based on the outcome of the next British Columbia
Election to the Provincial Parliament in Victoria on Wednesday,
May 17, 2005, and the electoral reform referendum which will be
held on the same day. For details regarding the contracts being traded
consult the information in the trader's manual.
The Election Stock Market for the May 2005 provincial election and electoral reform referendum is now closed.
| Market Liquidation:
Following the election and referendum on May 17, the market
administrators will await the return of the writ, scheduled
for June 8, before liquidating the market and sending out
cheques. This is to ensure that results from any recounts are
reflected in the liquidation values for the individual contracts.
Judicial recounts will be conducted in two constituencies were the
result was very close. June 7, 2005: The market liquidation
is in progress. Please refer to our liquidation
values page for details. Cheques will be in the mail by the end of
|Election Stock Market Statistics|
|Number of Investors
|Seats Distribution: Predicted vs. Actual|
||Final Price (*)
|All Other Parties
(*) volume-weighted average trading price
of May 14-16, 2005;
Predicted vs. Actual (+)|
||Final Price (*)
|| -1.3 %
|| -5.6 %
|B.C. Green Party
|| 9.2 %
|| +4.7 %
|All Other Parties
final prices may not add up to 100¢
(+) actual results are preliminary
Introduction [PDF] - this two page
document summarizes what the election stock market is about. A much
more detailed description can be found in our Trader's
Manual; click on the corresponding menu button on the left.
- see our markets in action: tables and charts of the seats market,
popular vote market, and majority government market.
We also provide a spreadsheet file with volume-weighted
to journalists and researchers.
Voter Migration Matrix Election Forecasting Tool - predict the seats distribution by conjecturing the likely migration of
voters between parties. - Following the election on May 17, the B.C. Election 2009 forecasting tool is now available.
Opinion Polls - see what the polls predict.
Previous Election Results
•2001 Election Results
•1996 Election Results
Message Board - follow the discussions about the UBC-ESM 2005
on the rabble.ca internet message board.
UBC-ESM News Coverage in the Media
Election stock market proves very accurate,
Gordon McIntyre, The Province, April 28, 2005
UBC online exchange lets free market investors bet on May 17 vote,
David Secko, May 2, 2005.
UBC Election Stock Market now open for business,
Will Keats-Osborn, The Ubyssey, March 1, 2005
UBC-ESM News Releases
February 1, 2005
April 18, 2005
May 12, 2005
Information about Political Parties
B.C. Liberal Party
B.C. New Democratic Party
B.C. Green Party
Election News Coverage
CBC: B.C. Votes 2005
Vancouver Sun, Province, National Post, Global TV: B.C. Election 2005
The Globe and Mail: The B.C. Election
Other Useful Links
• Milton Chan's
Elections Prediction Project attempts to predict outcomes in individual
analyzing information from individual ridings through a panel of experts.
Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform
Information on the proposed proportional representation single transferable vote
to be considered in the referendum on electoral reform.
BC-STV web site of Citizens' Assembly
STV for BC is another "yes" campaign web site.
FairVotingBC also campaigns for the "yes" side in the referendum.
• The No-to-STV Campaign
• Know More Before You Vote is a no compaign supported by Bill Tieleman and Bud Smith.
• Wikipedia entry:
British Columbia general election, 2005.
2020 Sauder School of Business,
University of British Columbia.