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Methodology:
Elections in British Columbia employ a "first-past-the-post" voting
system. Thus the prediction of the election result in terms of the
seats distribution in the provincial legislature is based
on a prediction of the election result in each constituency. The use
of a voter migration matrix reflects the notion that voters change
their opinion about candidates and parties in a similar way across the
entire province. That is, a party that gains or loses vote in one
constituency tends to gain or lose votes in other constituencies. In
the simplest form, this "swing" can be applied across all
constituencies.
The voter migration matrix can be used in a disaggregated way
by restricting the migration to five regions (Metro Vancouver,
Fraser Valley, Northern Interior, Southern Interior, and Vancouver Island).
The migration matrix also allows for transitions between voters
and non-voters, based on the number of registered voters during the
last electon.
Voter migration analysis has to be carried out with consideration
of the limitations of this method. First, the method does not reflect the
change in population. Some children have reached voting age, some
(mostly older) people have died, and other people have moved to B.C. or
have moved away from B.C. Second, transitions between voters and
non-voters are difficult to predict because public opinion polls
only poll the current electorate and typically do not report whether
someone has voted in the last election or not, or if
they intend to abstain. Third, the voter migration matrix is applied identically
across all constituencies or across regions. This ignores
constituency-specific factors (for example incumbency).
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