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British Columbia Provincial Election 1996
This market is closed.
 

 
Performance of the UBC Election Stock Market
in the 1996 B.C. Provincial Election


 
Party Seats (%) Popular Vote (%)
Election
Result
[1]
UBC
ESM
[2]
Last
Poll
[3]
Election
Result
[1]
UBC
ESM
[2]
Last
Poll
[3]
BCR 2.7 5.0 n/a 9.3 6.0 8.0
LIB 44.0 45.0 n/a 42.0 45.0 44.0
NDP 52.0 50.0 n/a 39.6 45.0 42.0
PDA 1.3 1.2 n/a 5.8 4.0 4.0
SC 0.0 0.4 n/a 0.4 1.0 n/a
OT 0.0 6.8 [4] n/a 2.9 5.0 2.0
Notes:
  1. Actual results are as reported by Elections B.C.. These figures are preliminary.
  2. UBC-ESM predictions are closing prices at midnight before the election.
  3. The last poll column refers to the Angus-Reid poll conducted on May 20/21.
  4. The UBC-ESM predicted 6.8% for the seats share of "other parties" due to an unusual last-second trade. The closing price the day before was 0.4% and the average price on the last day was 1.8%.
UBC-ESM Information:
  • Market Opened: 12:00 noon PDT, Monday October 2, 1995
  • Market Closed: 12:00 midnight before election May 28, 1996
  • Final Number of traders: 44
  • Total Invested: $6,324

Final Values: Seats Market
PartyContractFinal Value
B.C. Reform PartyBCR$0.027
Liberal PartyLIB$0.440
New Democractic PartyNDP$0.520
Prog. Dem. AlliancePDA$0.013
Social Credit PartySC$0.000
Other Parties & IndividualsOT$0.000

Final Values: Popular Vote Market
PartyContractFinal Value
B.C. Reform PartyP.BCR$0.093
Liberal PartyP.LIB$0.420
New Democractic PartyP.NDP$0.396
Prog. Dem. AllianceP.PDA$0.058
Social Credit PartyP.SC$0.004
Other Parties & IndividualsP.OT$0.029

Final Values: Majority Government Market
PartyContractFinal Value
Liberal MajorityM.LIB$0.000
NDP MajorityM.NDP$1.000
NeitherM.OT$0.000

 
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