UBC Election Stock Market B.C. 1996

This market is closed.

Performance of the UBC Election Stock Market
in the 1996 B.C. Provincial Election

Party	Seats (%)			Popular Vote (%)
Party	Election Result [1]	UBC ESM [2]	Last Poll [3]	Election Result [1]	UBC ESM [2]	Last Poll [3]
BCR	2.7	5.0	n/a	9.3	6.0	8.0
LIB	44.0	45.0	n/a	42.0	45.0	44.0
NDP	52.0	50.0	n/a	39.6	45.0	42.0
PDA	1.3	1.2	n/a	5.8	4.0	4.0
SC	0.0	0.4	n/a	0.4	1.0	n/a
OT	0.0	6.8 [4]	n/a	2.9	5.0	2.0
Notes: Actual results are as reported by Elections B.C.. These figures are preliminary. UBC-ESM predictions are closing prices at midnight before the election. The last poll column refers to the Angus-Reid poll conducted on May 20/21. The UBC-ESM predicted 6.8% for the seats share of "other parties" due to an unusual last-second trade. The closing price the day before was 0.4% and the average price on the last day was 1.8%.
UBC-ESM Information: Market Opened: 12:00 noon PDT, Monday October 2, 1995 Market Closed: 12:00 midnight before election May 28, 1996 Final Number of traders: 44 Total Invested: $6,324

Final Values: Seats Market

Party Contract Final Value

B.C. Reform Party BCR $0.027

Liberal Party LIB $0.440

New Democractic Party NDP $0.520

Prog. Dem. Alliance PDA $0.013

Social Credit Party SC $0.000

Other Parties & Individuals OT $0.000

Final Values: Popular Vote Market

Party Contract Final Value

B.C. Reform Party P.BCR $0.093

Liberal Party P.LIB $0.420

New Democractic Party P.NDP $0.396

Prog. Dem. Alliance P.PDA $0.058

Social Credit Party P.SC $0.004

Other Parties & Individuals P.OT $0.029

Final Values: Majority Government Market

Party Contract Final Value

Liberal Majority M.LIB $0.000

NDP Majority M.NDP $1.000

Neither M.OT $0.000

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