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Canadian Federal Election 2006
The 2006 UBC Election Stock Market is a financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of the next Canadian Federal Election to the House of Commons in Ottawa. For details regarding the contracts being traded consult the information in the trader's manual. The Election Stock Market for the 39th Canadian Federal Election is now closed.
 
Market Liquidation - Following the election on Monday January 23, the market administrators will await the return of the writs and publication of final results by Elections Canada. This is to ensure that results from any recounts are reflected in the liquidation values for the individual contracts. Liquidation involves closing and auditing the accounts, and issuing cheques. This process takes usually about a week. We are unable to expedite the liquidation of accounts that only hold cash on election day because we require about two weeks to process and transfer all credit card payments and deposit them in our chequing account for distribution.
 
Update February 17, 2006: We have now obtained validated final election results, which include two judicial recounts (in Parry Sound--Muskoka and Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River). The writs were returned by February 13, 2006 and are published (or will appear shortly) in the Canada Gazette. We have started liquidating the market as of today. We have prepared a page with liquidation values for your reference.
 
Update February 22, 2006: Cheques are being mailed between today and Friday. We are making our way through the list of traders alphabetically.

 
Election Stock Market Statistics
Number of Investors Investment Total Investment Average
380$95,733$252
 
Seats Distribution: Predicted vs. Actual+
Party Final Price* Predicted Seats Actual Seats Error
Liberals 31.48 ¢  95.5  103  -7.5 
Conservatives 41.27 ¢  125.2  124  +1.2 
New Democrats 10.76 ¢  32.6  29  +3.6 
Bloc Québecois 17.61 ¢  53.4  51  +2.4 
All Other Parties 0.40 ¢  1.2  +0.2 
Total Absolute Error 15.0  
 
Popular Vote: Predicted vs. Actual
Party Final Price* Predicted Share Actual Share Error
Liberals 28.72 ¢  28.1 %  30.2 %  -2.1  
Conservatives 38.37 ¢  37.6 %  36.3 %  1.3  
New Democrats 18.15 ¢  17.8 %  17.5 %  +0.3  
Bloc Québecois 10.73 ¢  10.5 %  10.5 %  nil  
All Other Parties 6.09 ¢  6.0 %  5.5 %  0.5  
Total Absolute Error 4.3  
(*) volume-weighted average trading price of January 20-22, 2006
(•) predicted shares (seats) rescaled to add up to 100% (308 seats)

 
How well did we do? ESM vs. Pollsters (Popular Vote Predictions)
LIB CPC NDP BLQ OTR Absolute
Error
1. SES Research (Jan. 22) 30.1 36.4 17.4 10.6 5.6 0.4
2. UBC ESM (Jan. 22) 28.1 37.6 17.8 10.5 6.0 4.2
3. Strategic Counsel (Jan. 22) 27 37 19 11 6 6.3
4. Ekos (Jan. 20) 26.9 37.1 19.5 11.5 4.6 8.1
5. Ipsos-Reid (Jan. 22) 27 38 19 12 4 9.6

 
How well did we do? ESM vs. Other Seat Projections
LIB CPC NDP BLQ OTR Absolute
Error
1. Milton Chan
   (electionprediction.org)
104 118 29 56 1 12.0
2. UBC ESM 95.5 125.2 32.6 53.4 1.2 15.0
3. Gregory Morrow
   (democraticspace.com)
94 128 29 56 1 18.0
4. SES Research 84 134 34 55 1 36.0
5. Laurier Institute (LISPOP) 78 140 33 56 1 50.0
6. Jordan O'Brien (jord.ca) 72 135 38 62 1 62.0
7. Strategic Counsel 56 149 41 61 1 94.0
8. EKOS (Jan 20) 53 151 41 62 1 100.0
9. Ipsos-Reid (Jan 21) 46 157 42 62 1 114.0

Introduction [PDF] - this two page document summarizes what the election stock market is about. A much more detailed description can be found in our Trader's Manual; follow the link in the menu on the left. For instructors we have also prepared a brief slide show that gives an overview of the market [Updated January 12, 2006].
 
Message Board: Discuss the UBC Election Stock Market online. When visiting the message board, click on "Register" to set up a new message board account.
 
Market Activity - see our markets in action: tables and charts of the seats market, popular vote market, and majority government market. We also provide a spreadsheet file with volume-weighted average prices to journalists and researchers.
 
mini chart CA06.S mini chart CA06.P
mini chart CA06.M  
Click on the market charts above and to the left to obtain high resolution PDF versions. More detailed charts are available on the Market Activity page. On that page, click on any of the stock symbols or market names to obtain longer-period market charts and charts with high/low/closing prices for individual contracts. For research purposes we also offer a PDF chart of the average daily bid-ask spreads.

 
Voter Migration Matrix Election Forecasting Tool - predict the seats distribution by conjecturing the likely migration of voters between parties.
 
Opinion Polls - see what the polls predict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
 
UBC-ESM News Releases
  • December 13, 2005
  • January 11, 2006
 
The UBC-ESM in the News
  • Democracy for the betting junkie,
    by David Reevely, The Ottawa Citizen, December 5, 2005, page A14.
  • Who'll Win the Canadian Election? Gamblers May Have the Answer
    by Alexandre Deslongchamps, Bloomberg News Service, December 15, 2005.
    Featured in the Vancouver Sun, December 16, 2006, page H3.
  • Stock Market tracks ups and downs of election campaign,
    by Ian Austin, The Province, Monday December 26, 2005, page A26.
  • Traders placing their bets on Tory victory,
    by Tavia Grant, The Globe and Mail, Tuesday Jan. 10, 2006, page A5.
  • Futures markets betting on Harper
    by Madhavi Acharya and Tom Yew, The Toronto Star,
    Tuesday January 10, 2006, page A10.
  • Projecting seats
    by Tom McFeat, CBC Online, Thursday January 19, 2006.
  • Canada's Gamblers Predict Conservatives Will win 125 Seats
    by Alexandre Deslongchamps, Bloomberg News Service, January 20, 2006.
 
Previous Election Results
  • 2004 Election Results
  • 2000 Election Results
  • 1997 Election Results
 
Information about Political Parties
  • Liberal Party of Canada
  • Conservative Party of Canada
  • New Democratic Party
  • Bloc Québécois
  • Green Party of Canada
 
Wikipedia Entries
  • 39th Canadian Federal Election, 2006.
  • Election Stock Market.
  • Prediction market.

 
Other Useful Links
  • Elections Canada
  • Canada Election 2006 Seats Projections from Nodice.ca
  • Gregory Morrow's Seat Predictions at democraticspace.com
  • CBC Election Coverage
  • The Globe and Mail Election Coverage
  • National Post Election Coverage
 
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