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The 2006 UBC Election Stock Market is a
financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being
traded are based on the outcome of the next Canadian Federal
Election to the House of Commons in Ottawa.
For details regarding the contracts being traded
consult the information in the trader's manual.
The Election Stock Market for
the 39th Canadian Federal Election is now closed.
Market Liquidation - Following the election on Monday January 23,
the market administrators will await the return of the writs and publication
of final results by Elections Canada. This is to ensure that results
from any recounts are reflected in the liquidation values for the
individual contracts. Liquidation involves
closing and auditing the accounts, and issuing cheques. This process
takes usually about a week. We are unable to expedite the
liquidation of accounts that only hold cash on election day because we
require about two weeks to process and transfer all credit card payments
and deposit them in our chequing account for distribution.
Update February 17, 2006:
We have now obtained validated final election results, which include
two judicial
recounts (in Parry Sound--Muskoka and
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River).
The writs were returned by February 13, 2006 and are published (or
will appear shortly) in the
Canada Gazette.
We have started liquidating the market as of today.
We have prepared a page with liquidation values
for your reference.
Update February 22, 2006:
Cheques are being mailed between today and Friday. We are making our
way through the list of traders alphabetically.
|
| Election Stock Market Statistics |
| Number of Investors |
Investment Total |
Investment Average |
| 380 | $95,733 | $252 |
|---|
| Seats Distribution:
Predicted vs. Actual+ |
|---|
| Party |
Final Price* |
Predicted Seats• |
Actual Seats |
Error |
| Liberals |
31.48 ¢ |
95.5 |
103 |
-7.5 |
|---|
| Conservatives |
41.27 ¢ |
125.2 |
124 |
+1.2 |
|---|
| New Democrats |
10.76 ¢ |
32.6 |
29 |
+3.6 |
|---|
| Bloc Québecois |
17.61 ¢ |
53.4 |
51 |
+2.4 |
|---|
| All Other Parties |
0.40 ¢ |
1.2 |
1 |
+0.2 |
|---|
| Total Absolute Error |
15.0 |
| Popular Vote:
Predicted vs. Actual |
|---|
| Party |
Final Price* |
Predicted Share• |
Actual Share |
Error |
| Liberals |
28.72 ¢ |
28.1 % |
30.2 % |
-2.1 |
|---|
| Conservatives |
38.37 ¢ |
37.6 % |
36.3 % |
1.3 |
|---|
| New Democrats |
18.15 ¢ |
17.8 % |
17.5 % |
+0.3 |
|---|
| Bloc Québecois |
10.73 ¢ |
10.5 % |
10.5 % |
nil |
|---|
| All Other Parties |
6.09 ¢ |
6.0 % |
5.5 % |
0.5 |
|---|
| Total Absolute Error |
4.3 |
(*) volume-weighted average trading price
of January 20-22, 2006
(•) predicted shares (seats) rescaled to add up to 100% (308 seats)
| How well did we do?
ESM vs. Pollsters (Popular Vote Predictions) |
|---|
|
LIB |
CPC |
NDP |
BLQ |
OTR |
Absolute
Error |
| 1. SES Research (Jan. 22) |
30.1 |
36.4 |
17.4 |
10.6 |
5.6 |
0.4 |
| 2. UBC ESM (Jan. 22) |
28.1 |
37.6 |
17.8 |
10.5 |
6.0 |
4.2 |
| 3. Strategic Counsel (Jan. 22) |
27 |
37 |
19 |
11 |
6 |
6.3 |
| 4. Ekos (Jan. 20) |
26.9 |
37.1 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
4.6 |
8.1 |
| 5. Ipsos-Reid (Jan. 22) |
27 |
38 |
19 |
12 |
4 |
9.6 |
| How well did we do?
ESM vs. Other Seat Projections |
|---|
|
LIB |
CPC |
NDP |
BLQ |
OTR |
Absolute
Error |
1. Milton Chan
(electionprediction.org) |
104 |
118 |
29 |
56 |
1 |
12.0 |
| 2. UBC ESM |
95.5 |
125.2 |
32.6 |
53.4 |
1.2 |
15.0 |
3. Gregory Morrow
(democraticspace.com) |
94 |
128 |
29 |
56 |
1 |
18.0 |
| 4. SES Research |
84 |
134 |
34 |
55 |
1 |
36.0 |
| 5. Laurier Institute (LISPOP) |
78 |
140 |
33 |
56 |
1 |
50.0 |
| 6. Jordan O'Brien (jord.ca) |
72 |
135 |
38 |
62 |
1 |
62.0 |
| 7. Strategic Counsel |
56 |
149 |
41 |
61 |
1 |
94.0 |
| 8. EKOS (Jan 20) |
53 |
151 |
41 |
62 |
1 |
100.0 |
| 9. Ipsos-Reid (Jan 21) |
46 |
157 |
42 |
62 |
1 |
114.0 |
Introduction [PDF] - this two page
document summarizes what the election stock market is about. A much
more detailed description can be found in our Trader's Manual;
follow the link in the menu on the left.
For instructors we have also prepared a brief
slide show that gives an overview of
the market [Updated January 12, 2006].
Message Board:
Discuss the UBC Election Stock Market online.
When visiting the message board, click on "Register" to set up a
new message board account.
Market Activity
- see our markets in action: tables and charts of the seats market,
popular vote market, and majority government market.
We also provide a spreadsheet file with volume-weighted
average prices
to journalists and researchers.
 |
 |
 |
Click on the market charts above and to the left to obtain high
resolution PDF versions. More detailed charts are available on the
Market Activity page. On that page,
click on any of the stock symbols or market names to obtain
longer-period market charts and charts with high/low/closing prices
for individual contracts.
For research purposes we also offer a PDF chart of the average daily
bid-ask spreads. |
Voter Migration Matrix Election Forecasting Tool - predict the seats distribution by conjecturing the likely migration of
voters between parties.
Opinion Polls - see what the polls predict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
UBC-ESM News Releases
•
December 13, 2005
•
January 11, 2006
The UBC-ESM in the News
•
Democracy for the betting junkie,
by David Reevely, The Ottawa Citizen, December 5, 2005, page A14.
•
Who'll Win the Canadian Election? Gamblers May Have the Answer
by Alexandre Deslongchamps, Bloomberg News Service, December 15, 2005.
Featured in the Vancouver Sun, December 16, 2006, page H3.
•
Stock Market tracks ups and downs of election campaign,
by Ian Austin, The Province, Monday December 26, 2005, page A26.
•
Traders placing their bets on Tory victory,
by Tavia Grant, The Globe and Mail, Tuesday Jan. 10, 2006, page A5.
•
Futures markets betting on Harper
by Madhavi Acharya and Tom Yew, The Toronto Star,
Tuesday January 10, 2006, page A10.
•
Projecting seats
by Tom McFeat, CBC Online, Thursday January 19, 2006.
•
Canada's Gamblers Predict Conservatives Will win 125 Seats
by Alexandre Deslongchamps, Bloomberg News Service, January 20, 2006.
Previous Election Results
•
2004 Election Results
•
2000 Election Results
•
1997 Election Results
Information about Political Parties
•
Liberal Party of Canada
•
Conservative Party of Canada
•
New Democratic Party
•
Bloc Québécois
•
Green Party of Canada
Wikipedia Entries
•
39th Canadian Federal Election, 2006.
•
Election Stock Market.
•
Prediction market.
Other Useful Links
•
Elections Canada
•
Canada Election 2006 Seats Projections from Nodice.ca
•
Gregory Morrow's Seat Predictions at democraticspace.com
•
CBC Election Coverage
•
The Globe and Mail Election Coverage
•
National Post Election Coverage
Legal Disclaimers
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| ©
2023 Sauder School of Business,
University of British Columbia. |
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