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Canadian Federal Election 2008
Comparison of Prediction Accuracy

Accuracy comparisons are based on validated and judicially confirmed election results as of November 6, 2008. Six judicial recounts were conducted, with the judicial recount in Brossard-La Prairie resulting in the seat going to the Liberal candidate instead of the Bloc Québécois candidate.

Seats Distribution: Predicted vs. Actual+
Party Final Price* Predicted Seats Actual Seats Error
Conservatives 42.81 ¢  131.1   143   11.9  
Liberals 28.86 ¢  88.4   77   11.4  
New Democrats 12.83 ¢  39.3   37   2.3  
Bloc Québecois 15.42 ¢  47.2   49   1.8  
Other Parties 0.67 ¢  2.1   2   0.1  
Total Absolute Error 27.4  
 
Popular Vote: Predicted vs. Actual
Party Final Price* Predicted Share Actual Share Error
Conservatives 34.89 ¢  34.62 %  37.65 %  3.03  
Liberals 28.82 ¢  28.60 %  26.26 %  2.34  
New Democrats 18.89 ¢  18.75 %  18.18 %  0.57  
Bloc Québecois 9.42 ¢  9.35 %  9.98 %  0.63  
Green Party 7.83 ¢  7.77 %  6.78 %  0.99  
Other Parties 0.92 ¢  0.91 %  1.15 %  0.24  
Total Absolute Error 7.79  
(*) volume-weighted average trading price of October 10-13, 2008
(•) predicted shares (seats) rescaled to add up to 100% (308 seats)

 
How well did we do?
ESM vs. Pollsters (Popular Vote Predictions)
CPC LIB NDP BLQ GRP OTR Error
1. Angus Reid (Oct. 11) 38.0  28.0  19.0  9.0  6.0  0.0  5.8 
2. Harris/Decima (Oct. 12) 35.0  26.0  18.0  10.0  9.0  2.0  6.2 
3. Globe & Mail Poll of Polls 34.0  27.0  19.0  10.0  9.0  1.0  7.6 
4. UBC Election Stock Market 34.6  28.6  18.8  9.3  7.8  0.9  7.8 
5. Ekos (Oct. 13) 34.8  26.4  19.4  9.8  9.6  0.0  8.4 
6. Ekos (Oct. 10-12) 34.0  26.0  18.0  10.0  11.0  1.0  8.5 
7. Strategic Counsel (Oct. 11) 35.0  28.0  19.0  9.0  9.0  0.0  9.6 
8. Ipsos Reid (Oct. 11) 34.0  29.0  18.0  9.0  8.0  2.0  9.6 
9. Nanos (Oct. 10-12) 34.2  26.7  21.4  9.5  8.2  0.0  10.2 

 
How well did we do?
ESM vs. Other Seat Projections
CPC LIB NDP BLQ OTR Error
1. Ekos (2008/10/13) 136  84  35  51  18 
2. UBC Election Stock Market 131.1  88.4  39.3  47.2  2.1  27.5 
3. Laurier Institute (LISPOP) 132  90  33  51  30 
4. democraticSPACE (Greg Morrow) 126  92  36  52  36 
5. ElectionPrediction.org (Milton Chan) 125  94  36  51  38 
6. Ekos (2008/10/10) 152  60  39  57  38 


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