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| Comparison of Prediction Accuracy |
Accuracy comparisons are based on validated and judicially confirmed election results as of November 6, 2008. Six judicial recounts were
conducted, with the judicial recount in Brossard-La Prairie resulting
in the seat going to the Liberal candidate instead of the
Bloc Québécois candidate.
| Seats Distribution:
Predicted vs. Actual+ |
|---|
| Party |
Final Price* |
Predicted Seats• |
Actual Seats |
Error |
| Conservatives |
42.81 ¢ |
131.1 |
143 |
11.9 |
|---|
| Liberals |
28.86 ¢ |
88.4 |
77 |
11.4 |
|---|
| New Democrats |
12.83 ¢ |
39.3 |
37 |
2.3 |
|---|
| Bloc Québecois |
15.42 ¢ |
47.2 |
49 |
1.8 |
|---|
| Other Parties |
0.67 ¢ |
2.1 |
2 |
0.1 |
|---|
| Total Absolute Error |
27.4 |
| Popular Vote:
Predicted vs. Actual |
|---|
| Party |
Final Price* |
Predicted Share• |
Actual Share |
Error |
| Conservatives |
34.89 ¢ |
34.62 % |
37.65 % |
3.03 |
|---|
| Liberals |
28.82 ¢ |
28.60 % |
26.26 % |
2.34 |
|---|
| New Democrats |
18.89 ¢ |
18.75 % |
18.18 % |
0.57 |
|---|
| Bloc Québecois |
9.42 ¢ |
9.35 % |
9.98 % |
0.63 |
|---|
| Green Party |
7.83 ¢ |
7.77 % |
6.78 % |
0.99 |
|---|
| Other Parties |
0.92 ¢ |
0.91 % |
1.15 % |
0.24 |
|---|
| Total Absolute Error |
7.79 |
(*) volume-weighted average trading price
of October 10-13, 2008
(•) predicted shares (seats) rescaled to add up to 100% (308 seats)
How well did we do?
ESM vs. Pollsters (Popular Vote Predictions) |
|---|
|
CPC |
LIB |
NDP |
BLQ |
GRP |
OTR |
Error |
| 1. Angus Reid (Oct. 11) |
38.0 |
28.0 |
19.0 |
9.0 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
|---|
| 2. Harris/Decima (Oct. 12) |
35.0 |
26.0 |
18.0 |
10.0 |
9.0 |
2.0 |
6.2 |
|---|
| 3. Globe & Mail Poll of Polls |
34.0 |
27.0 |
19.0 |
10.0 |
9.0 |
1.0 |
7.6 |
|---|
| 4. UBC Election Stock Market |
34.6 |
28.6 |
18.8 |
9.3 |
7.8 |
0.9 |
7.8 |
|---|
| 5. Ekos (Oct. 13) |
34.8 |
26.4 |
19.4 |
9.8 |
9.6 |
0.0 |
8.4 |
|---|
| 6. Ekos (Oct. 10-12) |
34.0 |
26.0 |
18.0 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
1.0 |
8.5 |
|---|
| 7. Strategic Counsel (Oct. 11) |
35.0 |
28.0 |
19.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
0.0 |
9.6 |
|---|
| 8. Ipsos Reid (Oct. 11) |
34.0 |
29.0 |
18.0 |
9.0 |
8.0 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
|---|
| 9. Nanos (Oct. 10-12) |
34.2 |
26.7 |
21.4 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
0.0 |
10.2 |
|---|
How well did we do?
ESM vs. Other Seat Projections |
|---|
|
CPC |
LIB |
NDP |
BLQ |
OTR |
Error |
| 1. Ekos (2008/10/13) |
136 |
84 |
35 |
51 |
2 |
18 |
|---|
| 2. UBC Election Stock Market |
131.1 |
88.4 |
39.3 |
47.2 |
2.1 |
27.5 |
|---|
| 3. Laurier Institute (LISPOP) |
132 |
90 |
33 |
51 |
2 |
30 |
|---|
| 4. democraticSPACE (Greg Morrow) |
126 |
92 |
36 |
52 |
2 |
36 |
|---|
| 5. ElectionPrediction.org (Milton Chan) |
125 |
94 |
36 |
51 |
2 |
38 |
|---|
| 6. Ekos (2008/10/10) |
152 |
60 |
39 |
57 |
0 |
38 |
|---|
| ©
2023 Sauder School of Business,
University of British Columbia. |
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