UBC Election Stock Market Canada 2008

The 2008 UBC Election Stock Market is a financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of the 40th Canadian Federal Election to the House of Commons in Ottawa. For details regarding the contracts being traded consult the information in the trader's manual. The Election Stock Market for the 2008 Federal Canadian Election is now closed.

Election Stock Market Statistics
Number of Investors	Investment Total	Investment Average
257	$70,729	$275

How well did we do? - see our election day predictions, and tables that compare the accuracy of UBC-ESM predictions with those of pollsters and other leading seats prediction projects.

Market Liquidation Information - information for UBC-ESM traders about the payouts for each contract.

Market History - trading activity summarized for yesterday and since the UBC-ESM was launched, presented in tables and charts of the seats market, popular vote market, pluarlity market, and majority government market. We also provide a spreadsheet file with volume-weighted average prices to journalists and researchers.



Click on the market charts above and to the left to obtain high resolution PDF versions. More detailed charts are available on the Market Activity page. On that page, click on any of the stock symbols or market names to obtain longer-period market charts and charts with high/low/closing prices for individual contracts. For research purposes we also offer a PDF chart of the average daily bid-ask spreads.

Voter Migration Matrix Election Forecasting Tool - predict the seats distribution by conjecturing the likely migration of voters between parties. See also Prof. Antweiler's related research on voter migration analysis, which has been featured in an article Re-engaging non-voters key to election victory: UBC Study by Lorraine Chan in UBC Reports 54(10), October 2, 2008.

The UBC-ESM 2008 in the News
  • The Ubyssey, 10 October 2008, by Cynthia Khoo
  • Ming Pao Vancouver, 7 October 2008
  • Financial Post Magazine, 29 September 2008, by Sarah Efron
  • Ming Pao Saturday Magazine, 27 September 2008
  • Global TV Calgary News at 6pm, 26 September 2008; David Boushy
  • National Post, 24 September 2008, by Jeremy Barker
  • The Province, 19 September 2008, by Ian Austin
  • The Tyee, 11 September 2008, by Rob Annandale
  • Eye Weekly, 10 September 2008, by Alex Nino Gheciu
  • Vancouver Sun, 8 September 2008, by Kelly Sinoski
  • News 1130, 8 September 2008, by Richard Dettman
  • Vancouver Sun, 2 September 2008, by Darah Hansen
  • CTV.ca, 31 August 2008, by Parminder Parmar

UBC-ESM 2008 Press Releases
  • Bloc Quebecois eroding conservative hopes for majority (Oct. 6)
  • UBC Election Stock Market Opens for Trading (Sep. 8)

Previous Election Results
  • 2006 Election Results
  • 2004 Election Results
  • 2000 Election Results
  • 1997 Election Results

Information about Political Parties
  • Conservative Party of Canada
  • Liberal Party of Canada
  • New Democratic Party
  • Bloc Québécois
  • Green Party of Canada

Wikipedia Entries
  • 40th Canadian Federal Election, 2008
  • 39th Canadian Federal Election, 2006
  • Election Stock Market
  • Prediction market

Special Election Coverage from major News Media
  • The Globe and Mail
  • National Post
  • CBC
  • CTV
  • Global TV
  • Maclean's Magazine

Other Useful Links
  • Elections Canada has a new page for the 40th General Election
  • Electionprediction.org by Milton Chan
  • DemocraticSpace Seat Prediction by Greg Morrow
  • Canada Election 2008 Seats Projections from Nodice.ca
  • Public Opinion Polls via Nodice.ca
  • Election Opinion Polls from Prof. Andrew Heard (Simon Fraser University)

Legal Disclaimers