UBC Election Stock Market
1997 Canadian Federal Election

Results and Liquidation


Final Results as released by Elections Canada on July 11, 1997
PartyVotesShare of
pop. vote
SeatsShare of
seats
Liberal Party 4,982,502 38.4% 15551.5%
Reform Party 2,512,570 19.4% 6019.9%
Bloc Quebecois 1,385,630 10.7% 4414.6%
New Democratic Party 1,434,705 11.3% 217.0%
Progr. Conserv. Party 2,456,770 18.9% 20*6.7%
All Other Parties 211,89 1.6% 10.3%
Total 12,984,069100.0% 301100.0%
* adjusted by lowering the threshold for rounding upwards
to 0.44 so that the sum of percentages adds up to 100.0%.


Please see above for the final results of this year's market. Trader accounts have been liquidated during the last week of June. Each trader has been sent a detailed statement of his or her account. Payouts will be made by cheque. (Sorry, we can't do reverse charges on credit cards.) The statements and cheques were sent through regular mail.

Liquidation of the UBC election stock market for the Canadian 1997 Federal Election were based on figures obtained from Elections Canada on June 23. These figure proved to be inaccurate due to mistakes Elections Canada made in adding up the results in various ridings. Traders who have received an underpayment will receive compensation by the end of July.

Though operating for only about five weeks, we ended trading with 100 traders and almost $23,000 invested. Only 42 of the traders were from B.C.--the rest came from across Canada, with a handful in the U.S. We had traders in 8 provinces and one territory. The UBC-ESM team would like to thank all traders for their active participation.

We think the 1997 Market did very well as the numbers below reveal. Traders were very close in their prediction on the number of seats the Liberals would win and did not make any of the large errors we saw in 1993 when they failed to predict the Liberal landslide and the extent of the Conservative collapse. In fact, the average error in the number of seats predicted per party fell from over 10 in the 1993 market to under 5 in the 1997 market. The predictions of the Globe and Mail on May 30 missed the mark by more than 6 seats per party.

In the Popular Vote Market the predictions were about in line with the final published polls, closer than any of the three pollsters (Angus Reid, Gallup, and Environics). In both markets, traders overestimated the success of Reform and the Conservatives and underestimated support for the NDP and BQ.

With this successful test-run behind us, we are looking forward to operating the UBC-ESM with a much larger trader base in the future.

Please visit this page for further announcements. The UBC-ESM team would like to thank all traders for their active participation, support, and encouragement. If you have any questions or comments, do not hesitate to contact us. Our e-mail address is esm@esm.ubc.ca


The figures for the election results shown below
are based on preliminary results as of June 3, 1997

SEATS MARKET
Party Share of Seats in
House of Commons
Number of Seats in
House of Commons
UBC-ESM
Predicted
Actual UBC-ESM
Predicted
Globe&Mail
Projection
(05/31)
Actual
BQ 11.8 14.6 36 42 44
LIB 51.0 51.5 154 172-9 155
NDP 5.1 7.0 15 9-16 21
PC 8.9 6.6 27 16 20
REF 21.9 19.9 66 55 60
OT 0.3 0.3 1 0 1
Average
Absolute
Error
    4.67 6.83*  
(*: at range midpoints)

POPULAR VOTE MARKET AND FINAL POLLS
Party Angus Reid
(05/30)
Environics
(05/30)
Gallup
(05/30)
UBC-ESM
Predicted
Actual
Outcome
BQ 10 9 9 9.5 10.7
LIB 36 39 41 37.1 38.4
NDP 11 11 11 9.7 11.0
PC 24 20 22 20.3 18.9
REF 19 19 16 21.0 19.4
OT 1 1 1 2.5 1.6
Average
Absolute
Error
1.53 0.73 1.90 1.28