You must guess the probability with which a 1995 voter will vote for the same or other parties in 1999. The sum of each row must not exceed one. If a row totals less than one, the remainder of the voters are considered abstaining. Once you have completed your guess of the voter migration matrix, press the FORECAST button. The forecaster program will apply your voter migration matrix to the 1995 election results to find out which party will win in each riding. Leaving the matrix unchanged will display the 1996 election results.
For information on methodology and caveats, please see the UBC-ESM Election Forecaster Home Page
This hypertext page and the election forecasting software are © 1995-99 by Werner Antweiler.