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Election Stock Market Research

 

Articles in Scientific Journals by UBC-ESM Researchers

Antweiler, Werner: Estimating Voter Migration in Canada Using Generalized Maximum Entropy. Electoral Studies 26(4), December 2007, pp. 756-771. Data sources and charts are available on the Voter Migration Estimation web page

Antweiler, Werner; Ross, Thomas W.: The 1997 UBC Election Stock Market. Canadian Business Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2, April 1998, pp. 15-22.

Forsythe, Robert; Rietz, Thomas A.; Ross, Thomas W.: Wishes, Expectations and Actions: A Survey on Price Formation in Election Stock Market. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, volume 39, 1999, pages 83-110.

Forsythe, Robert; Frank, Murray; Krishnamurthy, Vasu; Ross, Thomas W.: Markets as Predictors of Election Outcomes: Campaign Events and Judgement Bias in the 1993 Election Stock Market. Canadian Public Policy, volume 24, 1998, pp. 329-351.

Forsythe, Robert; Frank, Murray; Krishnamurthy, Vasu; Ross, Thomas W.: Using market prices to predict election results: the 1993 UBC election stock market. Canadian Journal of Economics, volume 28, number 4a, November 1995, pp.770-794.

Other Selected Articles in Scientific Journals

Berg, Joyce E.; Nelson, Forrest D.; Rietz, Thomas A.: Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting 24(2), April-June 2008, pp. 285-300.

Brander, James A. Election polls, free trade, and the stock market: evidence from the 1988 Canadian general election. Canadian Journal of Economics, volume 24, November 1991, pp. 827-43.

Forsythe, Robert; Nelson, F.; Neumann, G.R; Wright, J.: Anatomy of an experimental political stock market. American Economic Review, volume 82, 1992, pp. 1142-1161.

Erikson, Robert S.; Wlezien, Christopher: Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? Public Opinion Quarterly 72(2), Summer 2008, pp. 190-215.

Forsythe, Robert; Nelson, F.; Neumann, G.R; Wright, J.: The Iowa political market: a field experiment. Research in Experimental Economics, volume 4, 1991.

Gemmill, Gordon: Political risk and market efficiency: tests based in British stock and options markets in the 1987 election. Journal of Banking and Finance, volume 16, February 1992, pp. 211-231.
See also: Scholarly Research Related to the Iowa Market

Academic Journals

The Journal of Prediction Markets

Articles in Business Magazines

Urquhart, John: O Canada! Your traders even buy and sell contracts on the liberals. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition), October 25 1993, page B1.

Hulbert, Mark: Bearish on Bush and Clinton. Forbes, volume 150, October 28 1992, page 171.

Fisher, Kenneth L.: Value will out. Forbes, volume 150, September 28 1992, page 170.

Laderman, Jeffrey M.: Election jitters? No reason to worry. Business Week, June 22 1992, page 89.

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